Some folks over at VG24/7 have taken a look at Sony’s current game line-up and concluded that the PS4 will be replaced by 2019. The evidence, apparently, lies in the high-quality of the games. They mirror the end of the PS3’s lifespan when developers were just beginning to truly optimize their games and push the PS3 to the limits of its capabilities. In addition, the release window for these upcoming games is estimated at 2019 at the latest. This is presumably more evidence that in the coming two years, Sony is already planning on making room for a new console.
There are two main holes in this theory. For one, Sony has been putting out great high-quality games since the PS3. Their bullish streak has hardly stopped, much less slowed down long enough for the Xbox to takeover the market. A string of beautiful trailers at a game show is hardly surprising, nor does it break any kind of pattern.
Secondly, guessing the release window of any game at about two years is dreaming big. That’s making the wild assumption that any game, much less the indie ones, will be perfectly on time in their development schedule. Two years is an optimistic estimate at best and does not account for the huge number of issues ready to crop up at a moments notice during any game’s development.
That said, they might have a point about pushing the limits of the PS4. Horizon Zero Dawn gets pretty close, however not close enough to even start thinking about ringing the death knell. Detroit: Become Human might, as Quantic Dream’s games certainly have a reputation for creating games well ahead of their time.
As far as I’ve seen, the PS4 has not had much in the way of slowed down performance. Regardless of the game, as the PS3 did on its last leg with games on the cusp of the change over to PS4, like Dragon Age: Inquisition.
Proper evidence also points towards the fact that come 2019, the PS4 will be six years old. The PS3 was seven years old when the PS4 finally came out. As such, it stands to reason that the PS4 will be approximately the same age when a new console comes out.
All that said, whether or not we’re getting a PS5 in 2018 or 2020, I’d like to know where technology can go from the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X. In only two years time, exactly what technological jump is there left to do? Sony could make the PS5 level with the Xbox One X, but that doesn’t sound like good business logic.
So where do we head after 4K? Well, there’s 8K, but our human eyeballs can’t really tell the difference. We biologically can’t; unless you plan on counting angles on a pinhead, anything upwards of 4K is going to look no different or blurry.