Global warming is one of the biggest dangers humanity has to face. Scientists have been making studies about it for years and the results do not look good for us. There have been various global warming projections that attempted to anticipate all the possible outcomes. A recent study tested the predictive power of these models and they compared it to the current state of the atmosphere. The results were worrisome.
Worst-case –projections are likely to happen
This study discovered that the global temperatures might rise nearly 5 °C by the end of the century, which is 15 percent hotter than the previous estimate. In fact, the odds that the temperatures will rise more than 4 degrees by 2100 increased to 93 percent from 62 percent.
Usually climate simulations managed to match the reality since they are based on a decade’s worth of observations. The scientists take their data from satellites and they analyse the amount of sunlight that is reflected back into space by clouds, snow and ice, as well as the balance between how much energy enters the atmosphere and how much atmosphere leaves it.
“This study undermines that logic. There are problems with climate models, but the ones that are most accurate are the ones that produce the most warming in the future,” explained the lead author of the study, Patrick Brown, a postdoctoral research scientist at the Carnegie Institution.
Their study discovered that the models that were the most accurate were the ones that predicted the most warming. The scientists also discovered that the simulations that match real world the most are the ones that said that the decreased coverage or reflectivity of the clouds will allow in more radiation over time.